Increasing My Position in AAPL, ‘Trying’ to Get Out of RIM


I watched news reports this morning that covered Apple’s annoucement that not only are they participating in their last MacWorld conference, but Steve Jobs’ will not be doing the usual keynote speech at the event.  While Apple claims that this is just the next step in a change of strategy that relies more on their Apple stores, Apple.com and iTunes to reach out to customers, some of the press coverage decided to renew speculation that Jobs’ health is in trouble.

This, along with analyst downgrades to market perform from outperform (Oppenheimer) and the French government’s ruling that Apple has to allow other carriers in France to sell the iPhone, made for a bad day in Apple stock to the tune of -6.6%.

At first, I was pretty worried, but then I started thinking about the leadership position at Apple.  The market has a perception that Jobs is a ‘genius with a thousand hands’ type of leader, as evidenced by Apple’s decline after his original departure, and its resurgence after his return.  As a result the stock price is heavily influenced by rumours about his health since the expectation is if it fails, so will the company.

This may have been true when he originally left Apple, but I think there is evidence to show he has been able to grow good leaders under him since.  For example, he was the head of Pixar studios which was eventually sold to Disney for >$7 billion dollars, which has since continued to excel with such hits as the Incredibles and, most recently, WALL-E.  Clearly Jobs had set up a system which could continue to succeed in his absence.

No question that the stock will get hit hard if Jobs proves to be ill, but since Apple is unlikely to provide any more detail in the next few months, and I still expect Apple to positively surprise the market over this Christmas season, I am viewing today’s drop in the stock price, and a month-low in the US dollar as a buying opportunity.  I am increasing my position another 20% at $89.31.  For those keeping track, my average cost is now about $115.

In order to pick up more stock, I wanted to sell something else which had less up-side, since I was getting uncomfortable with how much I had in the market.  I am starting to lose faith in the ability of RIM to balk the downward trend in the economy.  Their new Storm was received cooly by reviewers, and appeared to be more of a reaction to Apple iPhone instead of something new and innovative.

Clearly a LOT of Blackberry purchases are driven by enterprise, and trimming costs on cell phones is one of the first things enterprises do when the economy turns sour.  While if I had infinite cash, I would go long on RIM, at the moment I just don’t think there is as much upside opportunity as with AAPL.

IF I can get out of RIM tomorrow that is…   This is what I was greeted with when I logged into my trading account to sell the RIM shares:

TSX Trading Halted All DayIt turns out, aside from 20 minutes at open, the TSX was closed ALL DAY.  Hopefully things will be resolved by market open tomorrow, but with RIM’s earnings coming out at the end of day tomorrow, the TSX’s technical glitches may end up costing me (or maybe saving me) money.  I’ll let you know how it goes…

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3 Responses

  1. I got out of RIM at market open (9:30AM) at $47.80. So it turns out that the TSX glitch did cost me money, as the price would have been higher yesterday based on what I saw on the US market.

    Oh well, there were gains at the start of the year that this can offset come tax time.

  2. I clearly didn’t call it with RIM announcing better than expected results, with a 10% gain in the stock price today (minus 4% yesterday) so I missed a 6% upside.

    Oh well, this is actually good news, since my whole investment theory resides on Apple being less sensitive to the downturn than others, and the fact that RIM has balked this trend indicates that AAPL has a clear shot to do this as well.

    One surprise today was that AAPL’s stock did not react much to this news. I would have expected more investors to have connected the same dots I did.

  3. […] Comments Adrian Bashford on Increasing My Position in AAPL…Adrian Bashford on Increasing My Position in AAPL…mihaela on Time to Review the Concept of […]

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